Get the best insights every Monday and Thursday. Join our 20,000+ community to get the most valuable commercial real estate financial news. "CRE in 3" provides 3 trending headlines and 3 thought-provoking sections in just a 3-minute read.
π CRE in 3: Peak Cap Rates + Jobs > Inflation + Homebuilders Struggle
βοΈ 1. Market MovesOverview: Cap rates slip signaling peak as tariffs weigh on sales, Powell flags job risks with inflation at 2.9%, and builders cut prices amid weak demand. β 1. Peak Cap Rates: CBRE survey shows cap rates slipped 9 bps in H1 2025, signaling a peak; tariffs dampened 2025 CRE sales outlook. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Cap rate stabilization signals pricing bottom, but tariffs weigh on volumes. β 2. Jobs > Inflation: PCE inflation forecast at 2.9% in July, while Powell highlights rising job market risks and tariffsβ visible impact on consumer prices. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Tariff-driven inflation could stall September cuts but markets are predicting a September cut in part due to job market risk. β 3. Homebuilders Struggle To Sell: Homebuilder confidence fell in August, with two-thirds now offering record-high incentives as affordability pressures weaken buyer demand and sales. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Shows mounting strain in housing market despite builder discounts. π 2. Chart to WatchPer Realpage, U.S. apartment construction has dropped to a decade low, down 37% year-over-year, with major declines in Austin, Phoenix, Dallas, and New York. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Lower new supply may stabilize rents, benefiting existing multifamily owners. π° 3. Capital To KnowβC2R Capital Management is a national private real estate lending firm specializing in asset-backed loans. We originate short-term, first-lien bridge, development, and mezzanine loans to owners and developers of most asset classes. Our direct funding platform fills the void created by traditional lending institutions, providing developers and owners with alternative financing solutions that are creative, flexible, and fast.
Have a CRE deal that needs financing? Email us: huber.b@crediblecre.com |
Credible CRE
Get the best insights every Monday and Thursday. Join our 20,000+ community to get the most valuable commercial real estate financial news. "CRE in 3" provides 3 trending headlines and 3 thought-provoking sections in just a 3-minute read.
βοΈ 1. Market Moves Overview: CMBS issuance climbs to $30.7B signaling confidence, Linneman sees up to three 2025 cuts, and 73% of Americans say itβs a bad time to buy. 1. Q3 Issuance Rising: CMBS issuance hit $30.7B in Q3 2025, driven by single-borrower deals, putting annual volume on pace for the strongest year since 2007. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Strong CMBS activity signals renewed liquidity and investor confidence in CRE debt. 2. Linnemanβs Outlook: Economist Peter Linneman told Walker &...
βοΈ 1. Market Moves Overview: Fed cuts boost CRE optimism with cap rates easing, office recovery hinges on Class A demand, and new-home sales surge 20% on lower rates. 1. Fresh Appetite: Fed cuts are boosting CRE optimism, with lower debt costs fueling capital inflows, tighter spreads, and early signs of sector-by-sector cap rate compression. β‘οΈ Why it matters: Falling rates may revive CRE deal flow and repricing opportunities. 2. Flight to Quality: National office vacancy sits at 18.7%, with...